Golden State -4.5 (3u) / under 207.0 (5u)
Spread:
The moment that mouthpiece took flight, I knew I was all aboard taking Golden State for Game 7. Steph has been bottled up for most of this series with the Cavs forcing him to give up the ball on PnR's, but his emotional outburst may have woken up the beast inside for us to witness an MVP performance by Steph tonight.
The Warriors were exposed in several different ways in the last two games. Without Bogut, the Cavs switched to have Dray guarding Love at the perimeter, which took him away from the rim and gave Bron/Kyrie all the room they needed to drive. Dray has no option but to stick to his man because as soon as he comes in to help, Love would be open for a three by 15 feet, which is a high percentage shot even for him. The Cavs also started utilizing the high PnR more with LeBron at PG to get Iggy off of him and blow past the likes of Varejao and other woeful defenders to not meet Dray in the paint who's camped out in the corner guarding Love. The Warriors need to switch efficiently on defense to not be exposed to bad matchups and leave Green in the paint as much as possible to provide the excellent rim protection he's capable of in Bogut's absence.
On the offensive end, the Warriors need to treat Steph as more of a SG who creates mismatches coming off of elevator screens to get open looks. Too many times has Steph brought the ball slowly up the court, giving Cleveland ample time to set up their defense and prepare for a usually predictable offensive set. In the Finals when Steph was on the ball, he shot 36% for only 0.83 pts/poss. When he was off the ball, he shot 57% for a remarkable 1.42 pts/poss. The Warriors thrive when they play at their usual extremely fast pace, creating mismatches with their screens/ball movement and not letting the defense get set up. They can't let the Cavs, who are bottom 3 in pace, take the lead early and dictate the pace for the rest of the game.
For those of you who like historical data, there's a reason the home team is 101-24 (81%) in postseason Game 7's and 15-3 (83%) in NBA Finals Game 7's. The home team is able to execute more efficiently and confidently at home in high pressure situations, especially for the role players that are usually affected more by the increased pressure. Let's not be so quick to dismiss the accomplishments of this 73 win Golden State squad from the last two games, this is still a historically great team with the ability to catch fire better than any other, and I fully expect them to come away with a hard fought win at home tonight.
Under:
The bigger play for me tonight is the under once again. If you were to simulate 100 games between these two teams, I'd bet an inadvisable amount that the under would hit in at least half of the games. The pace usually slows down for elimination games and especially in Game 7's, as the defensive efforts ramp up and teams tighten up their rotations. Losing Bogut and Iggy mid-game in Games 5/6 were absolutely a huge reason for the Cavs resurgence offensively, and lightning won't strike 3 times in the same place. With Iggy probably drugged up and ready to suit up one last time this season, he should be a key contributor in slowing down LeBron tonight.
Since 1994, there have been 4 Finals Game 7's, and the under hit on all 4 by an average margin of 15(!) points. All signs are pointing to the under being a max play for me in what should be a slow and tight Game 7.