Cleveland -2 (4u) under 207.0 (4u)
Spread: I think we'll be seeing a Game 7 on Sunday. People backing the Dubs are mentioning that Bogut was playing limited minutes and didn't play in Game 6 last year when they won in Cleveland. I think the Warriors are going to struggle keeping the score close in the ~10 minutes Dray will need a break. Dray playing 40+ minutes won't end well because the small ball death lineup relies on him playing at high energy on both ends of the court. Before we forget, Bogut is still a highly effective rim defender that clogs up the paint, an integral part on high PnR's with his (controversially legal) screens, and an excellent passing big man in his 12-15 minutes. Ezeli is still too raw and uncontrolled to be effective for extended run, Speights is a 7 foot shooting guard, and Varejao and his hair both deserve an Oscar for pretending he got sniped in the face last game. Bogut and his DNP-CD last year was by design because it was an entirely different Cavs team without Kyrie/Love. Just as we saw Dray's value by his absence in Game 5, I think we'll realize how big of a contributor Bogut was for the Warriors on the defensive end. Also I don't see how relevant it is that the Warriors won in Cleveland last year against a completely depleted Cavs team. Same goes for Foster and his road team bias. Warriors have a losing record with him this postseason, as do road teams in general. We all saw what Kyrie and LeBron are capable of, and recency bias or not, I don't see Cleveland letting Golden State to celebrate again on their home court, where they've been almost perfect all postseason.
Under: As we saw in Game 5, for every 122 point half, we could just as easily see a 32 point 4th quarter. As a Warriors fan, I was shocked at how fast the 28th fastest paced Cavs were willing to play, challenging the Warriors to a shootout on their home court in an elimination game... And walking away with a dominant win. This was partially by design due to Bogut's injury, where we then witnessed that ridiculous small ball lineup of Steph/Klay/Livingston/Iggy/Barnes. The Cavs attacked the paint hard using their size to their advantage, and they usually ended with easy finishes from Kyrie/LeBron. With Dray back to clog up the paint, the Warriors should be able to spend less time trying to double LeBron with two guards, and instead focus on Kyrie and the Cavs perimeter defense. I think we'll see the Cavs control the pace of the game at home and set up their half court offense to physically chip away at a depleted Warriors squad.