NFL 2/4/18

Super Bowl:

PHI +4.5 (4u) W / PHI ML +175 (2u) W / over 48.5 (3u) W

The big game is finally here and I'm happy to grab the points with Philly today. The Eagles have the 2nd best defense in the league by weighted DVOA and put on an incredible performance against Minnesota and their top ranked defense last week. With their deep front 7 and elite rush defense, Philly should be able to limit the New England run game while putting plenty of pressure on Brady throughout the game. In the 7 Super Bowl appearances under the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots have managed to score a grand total of zero points in the 1st quarter. The Eagles need to take advantage of a slow-starting Pats team and take an early lead, while winning the time of possession battle by utilizing their strong run game, which ranks 3rd in YPC, to keep Brady off the field as much as possible. Pederson has been a phenomenal coach and should have won Coach of the Year (lost to McVay last night) for taking the next step and leading the team to a 13-3 record. I trust him and his staff to put together a solid game plan and to not fold under pressure like the Falcons did last year, or the Jags did two weeks ago, to pull off the upset. 

Final score: PHI 27 NE 23

NFL 1/21/18

JAX +7.5 (3u) W/ under 46 (2u) W

It never feels great to bet against Brady and Belichick in the playoffs but I can't lay more than a touchdown when the true condition of Brady's hand is unknown. Brady will be playing with a glove on his throwing hand which he never does, and he faces an elite secondary and a solid front seven in what should be a physical game. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Jags play a little dirty and really go after Brady's hand a la Sean Payton/Bountygate. Jags know that they can't win this game by having Bortles outplay Brady even while injured, so they'll look to win the time of possession battle and feed Fournette as many carries as he can handle to run some clock. 

Final score: NE 24 JAX 20

PHI +3 (4u) W / over 39 (4u) W

Final score: PHI 23 MIN 20 

NFL 1/13/18

PHI +3 (3u) W / under 40 (3u) W

With over 15 mph winds in Philly today, the weather conditions favor the home team with the better oline and defense. This also neutralizes the downgrade between Wentz and Foles since both teams will look to develop the run game today. Atlanta luckily capitalized on some crucial special teams mistakes last week in LA while Philly had a rough stretch to end the season, but I'll grab the points with the home dog in what should be a hard fought, low scoring game. 

TEN +13.5 (2u) L / over 48.5 (3u) W

NFL 12/24/17

SF +4 (3u) W

SEA +4 (3u) W

CIN +3.5 (3u) W

TEN +6 (3u) W

CLE +6 (2u) W

DEN +3 (2u) L

NYG +3 (2u) L

BUF +11.5 (2u) L

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NFL 12/3/17

BUF +9 (3u) L

GB -3 (3u) W

DEN -1 (2u) L

CLE +14 (2u) W

SF +3 (2u) W

MIN +2.5 (2u) W

Sunday Night Football:

SEA +3.5 (3u) W