World Series Game 6

CHC -1 -125 (2u) W / over 7 (2u) W

The World Series shifts back to Cleveland for Game 6 tonight, with the Indians just one win away from ending a 68 year championship drought. Arrieta's dropoff since last season's Cy Young campaign has been well documented but he's still one of the premier pitchers in baseball on full rest. On the other hand, Tomlin owns a 5.42 ERA pitching on 4 days' rest and a 3.47 ERA on 5 days' rest. Tonight, he pitches on 3 days' rest for just the 3rd time in his career, against a Cubs offense now featuring Schwarber in the 2 hole under the AL rules. Cubs haven't been great against curveball-heavy pitchers all year, but Schwarber adds enough protection for their top hitters to increase their chances at getting good pitches to hit. Joe West is also behind the plate tonight, who notoriously has a small strike zone. This should give both teams more hitters' counts throughout the game, which gives the advantage to Chicago's potent offense, as well as the over. Tomlin should get a quick hook before he sees the Cubs lineup for the 3rd time around with their rested bullpen trio but it might be too late by then. As long as Arrieta doesn't issue too many free passes with his 88.46% stolen base rate against a team ranked 4th in the league in steals and 2nd in the league in SB%, I like the Cubs' chances behind Arrieta to extend this series to a win-or-go-home Game 7.