Golden State +2.5 (3u) under 206.5 (5u)
Spread: Rolling with the Dubs for Game 4. Although it's true that the home team has been massively successful in this series as well as during this whole postseason in general, I'm not buying it that this Cavs squad who went 20-21 ATS at home this year will dominate the Warriors once again in Cleveland. Golden State averaged 40 uncontested shots per game in Games 1 and 2, and even though they were steamrolled in Game 3, they still had 37 uncontested looks of which they only connected on 15. For this reason, I think people are giving far too much credit to the Cavs defense. No matter how much Kyrie turned up the intensity, that doesn't change the fact hes one of the biggest defensive liabilities at the PG spot in the league. Love is expected to return tonight and he isn't any better at defending the deadly high PnR. The Warriors can't stay this cold for this long, and the Cavs will simply not shoot 20%+ better than the Warriors from downtown again. It's unsustainable for Cleveland to keep running a 6 man rotation with LeBron playing 40+ minutes every night and receiving zero bench support. I'll take Golden State in hopes that we'll see the team we've seen all season long that looks to finish off the season at home in 5.
Under: Big play on the under for me tonight. Love seems like he'll give it a go tonight but I expect him to come off the bench behind Jefferson. To counter this move, I really do expect Kerr to start Iggy over Bogut tonight, since this series has proven to be a terrible matchup for Bogut anyway. Usually when teams go small, it's to play at a faster pace and generate more offense. But a middle aged Jefferson is (sadly) far more effective than what Love can provide on a good day, and Iggy receiving the nod to start will ensure that he gets maximum time defending LeBron to prevent a large 1Q deficit like last game. So with both teams ramping up their defensive efforts, I like this game to be a slower and much lower scoring game than in Game 3.