MLB 7/17/17

DET +1 -119 (4u): Everyone seems to like backing KC with Vargas today but the value here lies with Detroit. Vargas might have a stellar 12-3 record with a 2.62 ERA but advanced metrics show that he's been extremely lucky, as his xFIP is over full 2 points higher at 4.77 and his xFIP- is at 109, putting him outside of the top 50. He also has a terrible 12.4% K-BB% and a fortunate 84.7% LOB% and a high run support rate of 5.8 per game, good for 15th in the league. Vargas has only been worth 2.0 WAR this season even with his terrific record and ERA, tied for 19th with Porcello who currently has a 4-12 record and a 4.60 ERA. All signs point to Vargas greatly outperforming his peripherals in the first half and should regress to the mean by the end of the season. W

TOR -107 (3u) W

HOU -1.5 -115 (2u) L