Divisional

SAT

  • ATL -4.5 (5u) W

The Falcons are my Super Bowl pick and I have a lot of faith in them to take care of business at home today. They face a Seattle team traveling East, which has been well documented to hurt the West coast team due to the time difference, and face a hot Atlanta team that won their last 4 games of the season by an average of 19.8 PPG. The Seahawks are not a good road team at all, going just 3-4-1 on the year despite winning the NFC West, and the absence of Earl Thomas is a huge liability in their secondary against the highest scoring offense in the NFL. Matty Ice has a reputation for not living up to expectations with his 1-4 playoff record but his only win came against the Seahawks in 2013, and he'll look to avenge their last minute loss to the Seahawks earlier in the season. Vic Beasley led the NFL in sacks this season and should have no trouble getting to Wilson against one of the worst offensive lines in the league to disrupt the flow of Seattle's offense. Julio Jones should also see some reps at slot receiver to free himself from being shadowed by Sherman and find plenty of open field to operate. My money is on the best offense in the league to make a statement win at home against a Seattle team that struggles on the road in a potential shootout.

  • HOU +15.5 (2u) L

The Texans' offense might not inspire a lot of confidence but they still boast an elite defense that ranks 2nd in the league in pass yards allowed. The Patriots have been the best team against the spread this year but there's not much value in laying over 2 TD's in a playoff game, even a mismatched one as this game. I'll grab the points here and hope for a 4th quarter garbage time score from Osweiler. 

SUN

  • DAL -5 (4u) L

 The red hot Packers take their 7 game winning streak into Dallas to face the Cowboys who had a week off to rest. Rodgers has been the hottest quarterback in the league with his 12:0 TD:INT ratio in the last 3 weeks but will be without his top receiver in Nelson. The Packers are dangerously thin in their secondary depth even with Randall healthy, while the Dallas defense is underrated and the Cowboys will get Claiborne back from injury today. Dallas loves to stack the box and should put plenty of pressure on Rodgers to slow down their offense and win comfortably at home. 

  • KC -2.5 (4u) L

The Steelers have turned this season around and are going into Kansas City on an impressive winning streak, rattling off 8 consecutive wins after a 4 week losing streak. The Chiefs are a solid team all around with no real deficiencies in any facet of their game. On the defensive side, they boast a tough front 7 led by Houston who should be healthy, and a solid secondary led by Peters who has yet to allow a TD this season. Alex Smith should continue his solid high-floor play against an above average Steelers defense and the recent usage of Hill as an offensive weapon has added another facet to their usual checkdown game. Big Ben has not done well on the road this season, where his completion rate drops nearly 10% (!) from 68.5% to 58.9%, and will face an extremely tough test against a stout defense at Arrowhead, which boasts one of the top home field advantages in the NFL. This should be a hard fought game but Kansas City should keep up their underrated solid level of play to win by a field goal at home. 

Wild Card (4-0 +10u)

SAT

  • HOU -3.5 (3u) W

This game features two 3rd string QBs in what may be the worst playoff game in recent memory. Connor Cook will make his first NFL start after McGloin went down with a shoulder injury last week and faces a stout Houston defense on the road without his blind side tackle Donald Penn, which is a recipe for disaster. Watt may be out for the year but the Texans still boast a strong front 7 with Clowney returning to join Mercilus and Cushing to give Cook a tough challenge in his debut. Osweiler has been mostly underwhelming to say the least since signing his big contract with Houston in the offseason but at least has a handful of NFL starts under his belt and should be more comfortable playing at home. Points will definitely come at a premium in this matchup but I like the Texans to shut down Cook in his first ever start and cover at home. 

  • SEA -8 (3u) W

Both teams enter the playoffs limping, with Detroit losing 3 straight to finish the season and lose the division, and Seattle looking unimpressive in the last month of the season, capped by a narrow win against the Niners as double digit favorites. Detroit's playoff struggles on the road have been well documented, losing their last 8 playoff games away from home, and face a hostile environment at CenturyLink. Levy looks to be a game time decision but won't be near 100%, and Detroit has a few other injuries in their line and secondary that won't be easy to replace. Seattle may have a terrible o-line and a weak running game but they've dealt with it all season and they've been able to change their identity than in previous years. Seattle's defense isn't the dominant force they used to be without Thomas but should have enough to keep the Detroit offense in check on their home field.

SUN

  • PIT -11 (2u) W

The Steelers finished off the regular season on a 7 game winning streak and look to keep that streak alive against Matt Moore and the Dolphins today. Miami previously beat Pittsburgh back in Week 7 behind Ajayi's 200+ rushing yards and a late injury to Big Ben, but this Steelers team should be well rested and ready to go after letting the backups play last week. Both teams have a few notable injuries, but Miami's 29th ranked defense will especially miss not having Maxwell/Jones/Abdul-Quddus in their secondary against Antonio Brown and the Steelers' potent offense. The weather should be in the single digits, which the Dolphins are less accustomed to, and a windy forecast favors the team with the better defense and run game. As long as the Steelers' oline can keep Suh in check, Bell should have a solid day with 25+ touches and Pittsburgh should cruise to a dominating 2+ TD win at home. 

  • GB -5 (2u) W

Aaron Rodgers famously stated that his Packers are going to run the table after their Week 11 loss, which was their 4th straight loss to bring their record down to a disappointing 4-6. Green Bay did just that, rattling off 6 straight wins to finish their season and host the Giants in Lambeau. New York's stout defense took a huge loss to their dline when JPP went down with an injury a month ago, but they're otherwise very healthy and should still be able to keep the Packers in check with their solid secondary. Packers have a few injury concerns notably in their secondary, with Rollins suffering a concussion to join their top corner Shields on the sidelines for today's game. Although we've seen what Eli could do as an underdog in the playoffs, where he boasts a very good SU/ATS record, his play has been erratic in the 2nd half of the season, especially on the road. With Rodgers entering the playoffs with all the momentum in the world, the Packers should hold off Eli and OBJ to cover and head to Dallas for the next round. 

Week 13 (7-5 +5.25u)

TNF

  • MIN +3 (4u) W
  • MIN/DAL u44 (2u) W 

SUN 

  • CIN -1.5 (4u) W
  • ARI -2.5 (4u) W
  • LA +13 (3u) L
  • BUF +3 (3u) L
  • NO -6.5 (2u) L
  • PIT -6.5 (2u) W
  • KC +5 (2u) W

SNF 

  • SEA -8 (3u) W
  • SEA/CAR u43.5 (3u) L

MNF

  • NYJ -1 (4u) L

Week 12 (6-6 +0.15u)

THU

  • MIN +2 (3u) L
  • WAS +6 (4u) W
  • IND +9 (2u) L

SUN 

  • SD -2.5 (4u) W
  • CLE +7 (4u)  L
  • CIN +3.5 (3u) L
  • ARI +3.5 (3u) L
  • TB +5 (2u) W
  • SF +7.5 (2u) W
  • CAR +3.5 (2u) W

MNF

  • PHI -4.5 (2u) L
  • PHI/GB u47 (4u) W

Week 11 (4-5 -2.7u)

TNF

  • NO +3.5 (2u) W 

 SUN

  • CHI +7 (4u) W
  • JAX +6 (3u) L
  • BAL +7 (3u) L
  • TB +7.5 (3u) W
  • SF +11.5 (2u) L
  • PHI +6.5 (2u) L

 SNF

  • WAS/GB u48.5 (4u) L
  • WAS -2.5 (3u) W

MNF

  • HOU +7 (2u) P

Week 10 (5-4 +0.4u)

TNF

  • CLE +7.5 (2u) L
  • CLE/BAL u44.5 (2u) W

SUN 

  • JAX -2.5 (4u) L
  • TEN +3 (4u) W
  • PIT -2.5 (3u) L
  • CHI -2.5 (3u) L
  • PHI -1 (2u) W
  • SF +14 (2u)  W

 SNF

  • SEA +7.5 (3u) W

MNF

  • CIN +1 (4u) P

Week 9 (3-5 -6.65u)

TNF

  • TB +4.5 (2u) L
  • TB/ATL u51 (3u) L

SUN

  • JAX +7.5 (3u) W
  • CLE +7.5 (3u) L
  • LA +3 (3u) P
  • TEN +3.5 (3u) L
  • NYG +3 (2u) W
  • IND +7.5 (2u) W
  • SF +4.5 (2u) L

MNF

  • BUF +6 (4u) P

 

Week 7 (6-7 -2.85u)

TNF

  • CHI +7.5 (3u) L
  • CHI/GB u46 (2u) W

SUN

  • PHI +3 (4u) W
  • MIA +3 (3u) W
  • PIT +7.5 (3u) L
  • JAX -1 (2u) L
  • TEN -3 (2u) L
  • SD +6 (2u) W
  • SF -1 (2u) L
  • NYJ -1.5 (2u) W

SNF

  • ARI -2 (3u) L

MNF

  • HOU +7.5 (2u) L
  • HOU/DEN u40.5 (2u) W

Week 6 (7-3-2 +9.5u)

TNF

  • SD +3 (3u) W
  • DEN/SD u45.5 (4u) W

SUN

  • MIA +7.5 (4u) W
  • SEA -6.5 (4u) L
  • CIN +7.5 (3u) L
  • NYG -3 (3u) W
  • WAS +3 (2u) W
  • KC -1 (2u) W
  • LA +3 (2u) P

SNF

  • IND +3 (1u) P

MNF

  • NYJ +7.5 (3u) L
  • NYJ/ARI u45.5 (2u) W

Week 5 (5-4-1 -0.6u)

TNF

  • SF +4 (2u) L
  • SF/ARI o42 (2u) W

SUN

  • SD +3.5 (4u) W
  • CIN -1 (4u) L
  • HOU +7 (3u) L
  • CLE +10.5 (3u) L
  • DET +4 (2u) W
  • ATL +4.5 (2u) W

SNF

  • NYG +7 (2u) P
  • NYG/GB u49 (2u) W

MNF

  • CAR -5.5 (1u) L
  • CAR/TB u46.5 (1u) W

Week 4 (6-9 -15.3u)

THU

  • CIN -7 (2u) W
  • CIN/MIA o45 (1u) L

SUN

  • TB +3 (4u) L
  • NYJ +3 (4u) L
  • CLE +7.5 (3u) L
  • SF +3 (3u) L
  • LA +9 (2u) W
  • CHI +3 (2u) W
  • ATL +3.5 (2u) W
  • BAL -3 (2u) L
  • TEN +4.5 (2u) L

SNF

  • KC +3.5 (4u) L
  • KC/PIT o48 (2u) W

MNF

  • NYG +4.5 (3u) L
  • NYG/MIN u43 (2u) W

Week 3 (9-3 +13.65u)

THU

  • NE +1 (2u) W
  • NE/HOU u40.5 (1u) W

SUN

  • BUF +4 (4u) W
  • CIN -3 (3u) L
  • DET +7.5 (3u) W
  • WAS +3.5 (2u) W
  • SEA -9.5 (2u) W
  • LA +5 (2u) W
  • PHI +3.5 (2u) W

SNF

  • CHI +7 (2u) L

MNF

  • ATL +3 (3u) W
  • ATL/NO u54 (2u) L

Week 2: (4-7-1 -10.0u)

TNF

  • BUF +1.5 (3u) L
  • BUF/NYJ 40.5 (2u) L

SUN

  • CIN +3.5 (4u) L
  • SF +14 (3u) L
  • LA +7 (3u) W
  • ARI -6.5 (2u) W
  • SD -3 (2u) W
  • NYG -4 (2u) L
  • MIA +7 (2u) L

SNF

  • MIN +3 (4u) W

MNF

  • CHI -3 (4u) L
  • CHI/PHI u43 (2u) P

Week 1 (6-4 +2.4u)

TNF

  • DEN +3.5 (3u) W
  • DEN/CAR u41.5 (2u) W

SUN

  • SD +7 (3u) W
  • DET +3.5 (3u) W
  • CHI +6 (2u) L
  • JAX +5 (2u) W
  • MIN -2.5 (2u) W

SNF

  • ARI -6 (4u) L

MNF

  • WAS +3 (4u) L
  • LA -2.5 (2u) L