NBA 10/25/16

San Antonio +8.5 (2u) W

Golden State is likely going to be a fade target for me all year against the spread, especially early on in the season while they figure out their rotations and chemistry. With all of the hype the Dubs are receiving, the public will slam them regardless of the spread Vegas throws out, creating additional value in taking the underdog tonight. San Antonio will be without key perimeter defender in Green who was top 10 in the league in defensive rating last season, but their new look offense after the departure of Timmy should keep them in the game tonight. Kawhi is still the reigning DPOY and a legitimate MVP candidate if OKC and Houston aren't a top 4 team in the West, and his 33rd highest usage rate of 25.8% should be noticeably higher this season. On the other hand, the Warriors losing Bogut/Ezeli is a bigger deal than people realize, as Bogut's NBA-leading DRPM and Ezeli's solid defense will be replaced by the likes of Zaza, Varejao and Javale. San Antonio has the deeper and more talented bench too, where they can make up some of the scoring deficit they might face from the starting 5. I'm taking the points and rolling with the Spurs who could exploit a talented Golden State squad that may need a few weeks to be firing on all cylinders.