2016 MLB Playoffs: 40-25 (61.54%)
Wild Card: 3-0 +8u
NLDS: 7-8 +0.42u
ALDS: 7-4 +11.2u
NLCS: 7-5 +0.19u
ALCS: 6-4 +6.92u
WS: 10-4 +13.2u
CHC -126 (2u) W / under 6.5 (2u) L
Riding the momentum with the red hot Cubbies to finally end their historic drought tonight. Kluber and his 0.89 postseason ERA takes the mound for the Indians on short rest once again, against Hendricks who is carrying a 15 scoreless IP streak into tonight's matchup. It's a widely regarded fact that pitchers perform noticeably worse in their 3rd time through the order, so the Cubs lineup being able to see Kluber once again after seeing him for games 1 and 4 is a little encouraging, although he has been dominant in both matchups. Chapman threw a concerning amount of pitches for the past two games but should have enough left in the tank to shut the door, with Lester available in the pen as well to help solidify a mostly unreliable middle relief core. I think Tito will pull Kluber a little too early after making it through the lineup two times and depend on a rested Miller and Allen for the last 4 or 5 innings of the game, who have both not been as sharp as they normally are in their last few appearances. This should be a hard fought battle which could very well be decided by one run, but I have to go with the better offense with all the momentum in the world to take it home and win the World Series.
CHC -1 -125 (2u) W / over 7 (2u) W
The World Series shifts back to Cleveland for Game 6 tonight, with the Indians just one win away from ending a 68 year championship drought. Arrieta's dropoff since last season's Cy Young campaign has been well documented but he's still one of the premier pitchers in baseball on full rest. On the other hand, Tomlin owns a 5.42 ERA pitching on 4 days' rest and a 3.47 ERA on 5 days' rest. Tonight, he pitches on 3 days' rest for just the 3rd time in his career, against a Cubs offense now featuring Schwarber in the 2 hole under the AL rules. Cubs haven't been great against curveball-heavy pitchers all year, but Schwarber adds enough protection for their top hitters to increase their chances at getting good pitches to hit. Joe West is also behind the plate tonight, who notoriously has a small strike zone. This should give both teams more hitters' counts throughout the game, which gives the advantage to Chicago's potent offense, as well as the over. Tomlin should get a quick hook before he sees the Cubs lineup for the 3rd time around with their rested bullpen trio but it might be too late by then. As long as Arrieta doesn't issue too many free passes with his 88.46% stolen base rate against a team ranked 4th in the league in steals and 2nd in the league in SB%, I like the Cubs' chances behind Arrieta to extend this series to a win-or-go-home Game 7.
CLE +1.5 -110 (2u) W / under 6.5 (3u) W
No writeups 10/28-31
CLE +115 (2u) W / over 6.5 (2u) W
No writeups 10/28-31
CHC -1.5 -105 (2u) L / over 8.5 (3u) L
The series shifts back to Wrigley for Game 3 where the Cubs are looking to end their infamous championship drought. The weather report calls for 15-20mph winds to left-center which means balls will sail much more than usual, which is perfect for this hard hitting Cubs lineup at home. Tomlin owns one of the worst HR/9 ratios in the league, while Kendrick is a sinkerballer who should have more success keeping the ball in the yard. I think the home team's offense will come out in a big way tonight to take a 2-1 lead at Wrigley.
CLE +1.5 -125 (2u) L / under 7.5 (2u) W
Riding the momentum with the Indians tonight. Arrieta hasn't been sharp lately, giving up 6 ER in 11 IP and allowing at least 4 runs in 3 of his 5 career postseason starts. Bauer returns from his infamous drone injury after resting for over a week since his setback at Toronto and appears good to go to take on a potent Cubs offense that hasn't showed up for the majority of the postseason thus far. Miller didn't look as sharp as his ALCS MVP self last night but managed to escape unscathed after loading up the bases with no outs, and is apparently available after throwing 46 pitches in game 1. I'm taking grabbing the run line with the home team that has all of the momentum and better bullpen for another low scoring game tonight.
CLE -105 (3u) W / under 6.5 (3u) W
Rolling with the team that has been an underdog all postseason and overcame great odds to put themselves in the position they're in today. As good of a postseason Lester has had, his inability to hold runners on 1st could be catastrophic on the biggest stage against an Indians team that had the 2nd most steals in the league this season. Cleveland also hits southpaws notably well, with a slash line of .268/.330/.419, while Chicago's talented offense prefers lefties over righties, with a slash line of .252/.338/.421 against righties. With both teams having top-notch rested bullpens and some of the best bullpen management this sport has to offer, this should be an extremely low scoring game that could be decided by the 7th inning. The postseason is all about momentum, and I'm taking the home team defying all odds to bring the city a second championship in 4 months.
SF/CHC (2-4-2 -5.6u)
LAD/WAS (5-4 +6.02u)
TEX/TOR (3-2-1 +3.4u)
BOS/CLE (4-2 +7.8u)
AL Wild Card: TOR -1 -105 (3u) W / under 8.5 (0u) W
NL Wild Card: SF -105 (2u) W / under 6 (3u) W